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POSTPONEMENT OF SCHEDULED GENERAL SURGERIES IN A TERTIARY CARE HOSPITAL - A TIME SERIES FORECASTING AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Momia Yashpal, Talati Shweta, Bhagat Hemant, Koushal Vipin


Introduction: Postponement of elective scheduled operations results in inefficient use of operating room (OR) time on the day of surgery. Inconvenience to patients and families also caused by postponements. Moreover, day of surgery (DOS) postponement creates logistic and financial burden associated with extended hospital stay and repetitions of pre-operative preparations to an extend of repetition of investigations in some cases causing escalated costs, wastage of time and reduced income. Methodology: A cross sectional study was done in the operation theaters of a tertiary care hospital in which total ten operation theaters of General Surgery Data of scheduled, performed and postponed surgeries was collected from all the operation theater with effect from march 1st to September 30th 2018. A questionnaire was developed to find out the reasons for the postponement for all hospital’s stakeholders (Surgeons, Anesthetist, Nursing officer) and they were further evaluated Time series analysis of scheduling of Operation Theater for Moving average Technique. Results: total 2,466 surgeries were scheduled and 1,980 surgeries were performed and 486 surgeries were postponed in the general surgery department during the study period. Month wise postponement forecast was in accordance with the performed surgeries and on regression analysis postponed surgeries were in perfect linear relationship with the postponement Rate.